The bitcoin price could reach $64,000 by the end of 2019, according to a new analysis of cryptocurrency mining economics.
The study, conducted by Wall Street strategy firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, argues that that the ratio between the bitcoin price and miners’ breakeven cost (P/BE) has proven to be a “reliable long-term support level” for the flagship cryptocurrency and that current and future mining infrastructure development will “underpin bitcoin price appreciation into year-end 2019.”
“We expect the mining economy to grow over the next several years, and project a BTC price of ~$36,000 by year end 2019 based on the historical average 1.8x P/BE multiple,” Fundstrat quantamental strategist Sam Doctor wrote in the report.
CRYPTO: Our quant/data scientist @fundstratQuant publishing #bitcoin mining white paper. Crypto mining economics lead/explain $BTC price—suggests $39,000 per bitcoin by YE19. key takeaways below… pic.twitter.com/f5ZQ4py3jS
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 10, 2018
Doctor added that although $36,000 is the most likely target for the bitcoin price according to this analysis, it could end up anywhere in the $20,000 to $64,000 range depending how the landscape develops over the next 18 months.
Even the lower end of that range represents a 113 percent increase from the current bitcoin price, while the more optimistic target represents a 583 percent surge. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $9,375 on Bitfinex.
As CCN reported, mining firms have been rapidly scaling up their operations following last year’s prolonged bull market. Bitmain, the world’s dominant mining hardware manufacturer, is said to have made as much as $4 billion in operating profit in 2017, and Canaan — its largest competitor — is preparing to hold an initial public offering (IPO) that it believes will provide it with a $1 billion valuation.
Fundstrat has long been bullish on bitcoin. Founder Tom Lee has argued that, among younger investors, cryptocurrencies are rapidly replacing gold as the most popular “store of value,” and the firm has published a number of analyses that suggest the ecosystem will experience sustained long-term growth.
The firm has set its year-end price target at $25,000 for 2018 and has previously said that bitcoin could rise as high as $91,000 by early 2020.